Who’s going to win an Oscar on March 12? Critics, pundits, and fans alike toss their hats in the ring to try to predict who will win. And most will look towards the other major awards of the season like the SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globes to try to calculate their predictions. But what about other factors? Are there other statistics we can look at to help us understand what makes a more probable Oscar winner for an acting category?
How old do you have to be to win?
If you’ve taken statistics classes, then you’ll understand what the “median” is. When I took statistics, I have to say that calculating the median was my favorite. It’s like the nicer compromise over the “mean” or average which most people are familiar with. The median is the middle value in a range of data. When looking at the median ages for actors versus actresses, it’s interesting to see that there’s about a 10 year difference:
Median age of actresses (not de-duplicated, includes repeat winners): 35.6 years
Median age of actors (not de-duplicated, includes repeat winners): 45.2 years old.
So it looks like the prime time to win an acting Oscar for an actress is around 35 whereas it’s around 45 for actors. It seems like it’s normal for an actress to be relatively young to win an Oscar, but it seems too soon for an actor even if he’s in his early 30’s like Austin Butler.
Let’s take a look at the most common age in decades in which the winners were when they won (not de-duplicated, includes repeat winners):
Age in Decade | Actors | % of Total | Actresses | % of Total |
10 | 0 | 0% | 3 | 2% |
20 | 5 | 3% | 46 | 30% |
30 | 47 | 30% | 61 | 39% |
40 | 70 | 45% | 38 | 25% |
50 | 29 | 19% | 13 | 8% |
60 | 18 | 12% | 12 | 8% |
70 | 9 | 6% | 7 | 5% |
80 | 3 | 2% | 1 | 1% |
If you’re an actress, currently, 94% of acting winners were in their 20’s, 30’s, and 40’s.
If you’re an actor, currently, 94% of acting winners were in their 30’s, 40’s, and 50’s.
Is it a battle amongst the different generations?
Maybe it’s the decade of when one is born that favors them more to win an Oscar. Let’s take a look at the various decades (including the 1800’s) in which the Oscar winners for the acting categories were born in (winners are de-duplicated, does not include repeat winners):
Birth Decade | Actors | % of Total | Actresses | % of Total |
1800's | 22 | 14% | 11 | 7% |
1900's | 23 | 15% | 15 | 10% |
1910's | 21 | 14% | 18 | 12% |
1920's | 18 | 12% | 18 | 12% |
1930's | 15 | 10% | 18 | 12% |
1940's | 13 | 8% | 20 | 13% |
1950's | 13 | 8% | 10 | 6% |
1960's | 18 | 12% | 21 | 14% |
1970's | 9 | 6% | 14 | 9% |
1980's | 3 | 2% | 8 | 5% |
1990's | 0 | 0% | 2 | 1% |
For the actors, the heaviest concentration of acting Oscars came from those born in the 1930’s and earlier with 64% of the current winners being born during those decades. Even though those born in the 70’s, 80’s, and even 90’s are all moving into the more mature years of life, only 8% or 12 Oscar winning actors were born in the last 50ish years.
For the actresses, the most popular decade for Oscar winners to be born in is the 1960’s with 21 or 14% of the total unique winners. Unlike the actors, 15% of Oscar winning actresses came from the 70’s, 80’s and even 90’s. So far, there have been 2 actresses who were born in the 90’s who have won Oscars including: Jennifer Lawrence (born 1990) and Ariana DeBose (born 1991).
Maybe it’s written in the astrological star signs
If it’s not how old you are or when you were born, maybe it’s something a bit more mystical and magical. Could the zodiac be a clue as to who’s more likely to win an Oscar?
Star Sign | Actors | % of Total | Star Sign | Actresses | % of Total |
Aries | 24 | 15% | Scorpio | 20 | 13% |
Capricorn | 15 | 10% | Taurus | 17 | 11% |
Aquarius | 14 | 9% | Libra | 15 | 10% |
Gemini | 14 | 9% | Leo | 14 | 9% |
Scorpio | 14 | 9% | Aries | 13 | 8% |
Leo | 12 | 8% | Sagittarius | 13 | 8% |
Pisces | 12 | 8% | Pisces | 12 | 8% |
Taurus | 11 | 7% | Aquarius | 11 | 7% |
Virgo | 11 | 7% | Cancer | 11 | 7% |
Cancer | 10 | 6% | Capricorn | 11 | 7% |
Libra | 9 | 6% | Gemini | 10 | 6% |
Sagittarius | 9 | 6% | Virgo | 8 | 5% |
For actors, the fiery and bold Aries astrological sign has the most winners so far with 24 or 15% of all winners. On the bottom end, those whose star signs are in Libra and Sagittarius make up the least number of Oscar winners with 9 or 6% of the total winners.
For actresses, the water sign known for its mystery, passion, and intensity, the Scorpio, is the most common sign with 20 winners so far or 13% of all winners. The least common sign for winners is the earthy and practical Virgo with 8 winners or 5% of all winners.
So there you have it, some alternative facts to help you with your Oscar predictions! The Oscars will be presented on Sunday, March 12, on ABC.
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